Page 29 - Policy Economic Report - September 2024

POLICY AND ECONOMIC REPORT
OIL & GAS MARKET

Table 3: Non-DoC liquids production in 2024, mb/d

Non-OPEC liquids production 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024

Americas 26.67 26.91 27.58 27.53 27.58 27.40
21.60 21.50 21.48
of which US 20.97 21.02 21.80 3.78 3.67
3.65 0.43 0.45
Europe 3.65 3.66 3.58 0.46 31.80 31.52
31.64 4.48 4.56
Asia Pacific 0.45 0.46 0.44 4.53 0.79 0.80
0.80 1.59 1.61
Total OECD 30.77 31.03 31.59 1.60 7.53 7.32
7.29 2.02 2.01
China 4.52 4.62 4.63 2.00 2.27 2.26
2.27 0.37 0.37
India 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.37 0.10 0.10
0.10 19.16 19.03
Other Asia 1.61 1.62 1.62 18.96 50.95 50.55
50.60 2.52 2.52
Latin America 6.96 7.28 7.19 2.52 53.47 53.07
53.12
Middle East 2.02 2.00 2.00

Africa 2.22 2.24 2.26

Other Eurasia 0.37 0.37 0.37

Other Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10

Total Non-OECD 18.60 19.03 18.96

Total Non-DoC production 49.37 50.06 50.56

Processing gains 2.47 2.52 2.52

Total Non-DoC liquids production 51.84 52.58 53.08

Note. *2024 = Forecast. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding
Source- OPEC monthly report, September 2024

• From the above table, it can be inferred, that the total non-DoC liquids production is expected to
reach 53.07 mb/d by 2024.

• The non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of
Cooperation) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024 to average 53.1 mb/d.

Oil demand situation

• The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 2.0 mb/d, which is
still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This minor
adjustment of 80 tb/d reflects mainly actual data received year-to-date. OECD oil demand is expected
to grow by around 0.1 mb/d in 2024, with OECD Americas accounting for the entire growth. Non -
OECD oil demand is expected to grow by around 1.9 mb/d.

• The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also slightly revised down by a mere 40 tb/d to
stand at 1.7 mb/d. Non-OECD demand is set to drive next year’s growth, increasing by about 1.6 mb/d,
led by contributions from China, the Middle East, Other Asia, and India. OECD demand is forecast to
expand by about 0.1 mb/d, with OECD Americas contributing the most.

September 2024 Page | 28